He looked good against Sonnen and some even had him winning the bout. If Bisping is at his best and can avoid the kind of shots Stann delivered in wins over Jorge Santiago and Chris Leben , expect him to pull out a narrow victory. Prediction: Bisping by decision. A victory would likely me an emotional triumph for the fan favorite, who had a biopic about his life come out last fall.
On the other hand, Hollett, who is on a five-fight win streak, would have no problem playing spoiler during his UFC debut in his home country. Fight Breakdown: While grappling is Hollett's strength, it will be interesting to see how he matches up against the decorated collegiate wrestler, who has plenty of power. Ring rust could be a factor for Hamill, but knowing his willpower, probably not. Prediction: Hamill by KO. Fight Breakdown: While Swanson has put together back-to-back highlight-reel knockouts and is more than capable of doing so again, look for Oliveira, a slick submissionist, to find an opening and capitalize.
Though McDonald presents a stiff challenger on the feet, the youngster has never once faced anyone with the kind of wrestling and grappling skill Faber possesses. Faber's takedown accuracy is not great at 36 percent. But like other Team Alpha Male fighters, Faber often uses takedown feints and shoots to set up hooks, rarely committing to a full shoot. Against McDonald, I suspect we'll see him commit to far more, because McDonald's biggest advantage lies on the feet and Faber is nothing if not a smart fighter.
The biggest statistic for me, and the most telling one, is Faber's time in control on the ground and his advances. During his analyzed minutes, Faber has 15 dominant positions and 11 Total Ground Advances; compare that to McDonald's four dominant positions and three Total Ground Advances, and you can see where Faber's largest advantage lies. McDonald is not hapless on the ground. But if Faber can take this fight to the ground, his odds of winning the fight go way up. And I suspect that's exactly what we'll see here.
Recommended play: My percentages once again hew close to the market, so I'll offer a resounding "stay away" here. I'm still at a loss as to why this fight was booked in the first place, and the market agrees: Mendes is a resounding favorite after opening up at on Wednesday afternoon. That means that, despite Mendes being a massive favorite, people are still throwing money down on him! That's confidence. And rightly so. Mendes will win this fight, and likely in violent fashion.
I rarely have the inclination to call a fight a mismatch, but that's what this is. Mendes is going to win this one, and he's going to win it early, and with the line that high I simply can't recommend a straight play on the Team Alpha Male powerhouse. What I can do, however, is take a look at the prop bets.
And wouldn't you know it, there are a couple of interesting numbers in there. Mendes inside the distance is , and that seems like good value, as does "fight doesn't go to decision" at Recommended play: Take a look at the props here. Mendes inside the distance is my best recommendation, but there are others and will be even more listed by Friday that might offer intriguing value opportunity for you. The gut reaction here will be for you to assume Lauzon is winning this fight.
The market has him listed as a nearly favorite, and who is Mac Danzig, anyway? Some of you will ask that very question. Here's who Danzig is: a fighter who is a much better striker than Lauzon and who is statistically nearly every bit the grappler Lauzon is. I hedge that with "nearly" because Lauzon has spent more time controlling his opponent on the ground. But he'll need to get the fight there in order to do any kind of controlling, and given that his takedown accuracy is just 42 percent—a number right in the middle of the UFC average—that's far tougher than you might think.
On the feet, Lauzon is a below-average striker according to UFC numbers. He has a weak chin below the UFC average and has issued just two knockdowns while taking four. Danzig's Head Power Accuracy is much higher, while all of Lauzon's defensive metrics are below average. If Lauzon can get the fight to the ground and begin working for submissions, he wins this fight.
But I don't think he does, and that puts him in danger of being knocked out. That's what we'll see here.
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