Another example is the arbitrage games we publish. These games take advantage of situations when difference bookmakers publicly have different views on probabilities meaning we can cherry pick our bookmakers to not only remove the profit margin, but reverse it into a profit for us! This allows us to manufacture a no risk profit. These arbitrage situations happen more often than you may think, but they only last for a short period so you need to be looking for them constantly or let FiC do the work for you and simply enjoy the fact we publish these games for free!
Knowing the bookmakers profit margin can allow us to use a simple betting system to make money. By betting on the favourite when the bookmakers profit margin is small. Although there are lots of reasons that the margin could be small, it is, more often than not, small because the bookmaker is confident on their calculations.
They feel they do not need to make much money from the game because they are confident they have worked out accurate probabilities. If you then follow this to its conclusion, then you can trust the bookmaker and bet on the favourite. Conversely, you can avoid betting when the margin is not small.
By only selecting low profit margin favourites you can make a tidy profit in the long term. This system has some assumptions and a significant one is that bets made by punters have followed the normal patterns with no unusual discrepancies. That is, both you and the bookmaker are not expecting any surprises.
Assuming the bookmaker knows what they are doing, by utilising their Goliath like resources, then you can assume they have picked the favourite for a reason. If you do follow this system, then you must choose a bookmaker that is friendly to such betting. They watch for this pattern of betting and close the doors if you consistently win largish sums of money in the long run. One way to stay below the bookies radar is to sometimes not back the favourite.
When should you do this? When the margin is large of course! The margin is bigger than normal when bookmaker isn't confident about their calculated probabilities. There could be a new manager, or an injury for example. The bookie will then build in a larger probability to cover their increased risk.
From our punters point of view this may mean the outside chance is more likely, ceteras paribus. One thing to keep in mind is that odds are often set for reasons other than probabilities. Anyone can grab a goal at any point in the game, which means that the results are less consistent and harder to call than applying any implied probability like the result. As you can see above, the margins are much lower and there is a big scope. The average for this works out at a massive 6.
Horse racing will generally have bigger margins than most football betting markets simply because there are more variables to it. In the WDW market you have 3 results; home win, away win and draw. In a horse race, you usually have at least 5 runners and this number can increase up to 40 for the likes of the Grand National. You also have much fewer betting markets than football on the whole, so bookmakers want to make more from the limited selections that they can choose.
We just use the same format as we did before to get our margin. As you can see, the numbers and the margin for this horse race highlight a massive That is almost 3 times what the average margin would be for a WDW market in a football match. The reason, as we have explained, is that so much more can happen in a horse race that will reflect the result of the race.
Anyone who has been attached with the sport for any amount of time will confirm this and the crazy results, even though they happen in football, are less common than that of horse racing. There are a number of things to consider about the margins that are produced both online and offline. The difference will obviously reflect the sport and the margin, but on the whole, we found that the margins were almost twice as big on the high street as compared to online. One random bookie that we tested had around a 5.
This would likely beg the question as to why anyone would be on the high street? The answer can come back to the point that we made earlier in that you should always take the best price over the best margin as this is the money in your back pocket. If we were looking at the example above, Bookmaker 2 clearly has a larger margin than that of Bookmaker 1. But if we were looking to place a bet on the Home Win, then we would always take the 1.
What you need to bear in mind here is that the margin is made up of the whole market. It needs all results to create it and therefore it means that the odds will change and fluctuate for each. If we jump back to the high street to wrap this up, the higher margins that you find will be for a number of reasons.
The main one is that the betting shops incur higher costs, such as rent, utility bills and staff wages. They need to create a higher margin to make more money from the lower number of bets that they take compared to online. There is also an argument for the high street offering a different betting environment, such as actual interaction for punters, which again, comes at a higher cost.
If the price is good enough, then punters are willing to pay it. Either way, there is nothing we can do about margins as they are the way the industry ticks over. Skip to content. How Big Are the Margins at a Bookmaker? How to Calculate the Margin Before we dive into the meat of this article, you need to know how to work out the margin.
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